Resi does the math: How to estimate the total number of visitors

Resi does the math: How to estimate number of visitors

Have you ever wondered how you can determine the total number of visitors of your location / event?

We all can easily discover the peak number of visitors from the location list and the corresponding screenshots are gladly shared. But how many visitors were there during the whole evening? Nobody knows, but Gizmo.

At White Breeze we had a heuristic for this. But our dear Resi was not satisfied with this, so she sat down and put the whole thing on a mathematical basis.

So have fun with Resi’s calculation. Additions and improvements are of course always welcome.


6 thoughts on “Resi does the math: How to estimate the total number of visitors

  • February 17, 2020 at 2:30 pm


    Bravo my dear!
    My inner engineer is giddy with delight over your model.
    My question is that the value of k can be dynamic across the total time T. How do you account for that?
    I think I’ll use this at the next Swing Set event,
    Math is hot and you are also, but that goes without saying.

    I remain yours always, Plato

  • February 17, 2020 at 5:04 pm

    A fascinating paper! However, I’m not sure the assumption that the rate of people entering the room is constant over time is valid: rooms with few people in them attract few people, and unless it’s a well-known room, expected to be open at a certain time, it takes time to build up a certain “critical mass” (get high enough on the room list) in order to attract more people. Once critical mass is reached, often the room attraction rate will remain high simply by virtue of being “the fullest room”, so the attraction (and also attrition) rates are not constant over time.

    I’m not sure how you’d model that and account for it, because I haven’t given it that much thought yet, having only just read the paper… Great work though, and a definite tickler for the brain! Keep it coming, I love this stuff! 🙂

  • March 7, 2020 at 5:00 pm

    You never factored in the online availability of regular members… if the regulars are only available at the start, then the peek time will be at the start, not near the end… the regulars always draw in the masses

    but if the rumours are true about White Breeze, I don’t expect my comment be published..

    • March 8, 2020 at 10:32 am

      I actually don’t understand it: regular members of what?
      Resi’s calculations refer to a very normal 3DX event without any regular members or so. But maybe she will do an update and will include some of the hints given here.

      Another question: which rumours? Better ask yourself who spreads this rumours and why. Doing this, you will get a hint on how true this rumours might be.

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